7 min read · Last updated July 18, 2026
- The Q2 2026 Ivans Index shows five of six major commercial lines renewing at lower rate increases than Q1, but only workers’ compensation is actually falling in price.
- Commercial auto renewed up 4.93% in Q2 2026, its cheapest increase in a while but still an increase, and the broker-surveyed CIAB data calls it the 59th straight quarter of hikes.
- The CIAB Q1 2026 survey put the overall market at -1.2%, the first negative reading after 33 quarters of increases, driven by commercial property, cyber, and D&O falling.
- A softening market rarely means a lower bill. For most small businesses it means a smaller increase, which is why comparing carriers at renewal matters more now, not less.
In this article
– What “softening” actually means on your renewal – Where every major commercial line stands: Q2 2026 – Why commercial auto is the line that won’t quit – The broker’s-eye view: why two indices disagree – What a softening market means for your next renewal – Frequently asked questions
When Renata Alvarez opened the June 2026 renewal for her landscaping company, she expected relief. Every business-news headline that spring said the same thing: the commercial insurance “soft market” had arrived and rates were falling. Her commercial property line did come in lower, about 5% under last year. Then she got to the commercial auto line for her six trucks, and it was up again, roughly $2,100 more than the prior term. Her umbrella policy was up too. The “falling rates” she kept reading about had somehow skipped the coverage she spends the most on.
Renata’s experience is exactly what the Q2 2026 data shows when you read past the headlines. The market is softening, but unevenly, and the lines that are actually getting cheaper are not the ones most small businesses lean on.
What “softening” actually means on your renewal
First, a translation. When brokers and index reports say rates are “softening,” they mean the rate of increase is slowing, not that premiums are dropping. A line that went up 9% last year and 8% this year has “softened” while still costing you more. Only a negative number means you pay less than you did for the same coverage.
Two respected sources track this, and they measure it differently. The Ivans Index pulls renewal rate changes straight from the agency management systems that agents use to service policies, so it reflects what renewing customers are actually quoted. The Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers (CIAB) runs a quarterly survey of commercial brokers reporting their average premium changes. Same market, two lenses, and right now they tell a slightly different story.
Where every major commercial line stands: Q2 2026
The Ivans Index for Q2 2026, released July 16, is the freshest read available. Five of the six tracked lines renewed at lower average increases than the first quarter. Only workers’ compensation is actually negative, meaning it is the one line where renewing businesses pay less than before.
| Line of business | Q2 2026 renewal rate change | Q1 2026 | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Umbrella | +7.96% | +9.36% | Rising, but slower |
| Commercial property | +6.40% | +6.83% | Rising, but slower |
| Business owners policy (BOP) | +6.16% | +6.74% | Rising, but slower |
| General liability | +5.44% | +6.85% | Rising, but slower |
| Commercial auto | +4.93% | +5.28% | Rising, but slower |
| Workers’ compensation | -1.37% | -1.73% | Falling |
Read that table the way a business owner should: every line except workers’ comp is still an increase. Umbrella coverage, the extra liability layer many contractors and franchises are required to carry, is renewing nearly 8% higher. If you carry it, budget for it.
Why commercial auto is the line that won’t quit
Commercial auto is the number Renata felt most, and there is a reason it resists every soft market. The CIAB survey calls Q1 2026 the 59th consecutive quarter of commercial auto rate increases, a streak stretching back nearly 15 years. CIAB describes it as one of the worst-performing property/casualty segments over the past decade, with annual loss ratios above 100% every year since 2014 except 2021.
A loss ratio above 100% means insurers paid out more in claims than they collected in premium for that line. That is the whole story in one number. Rising medical costs, larger jury verdicts, and the price of repairing modern vehicles keep commercial auto claims expensive, so carriers keep pushing rate even while they discount property and liability. If your business runs vehicles, this is the line to shop hardest, because carriers price it very differently from one another. Our beginner’s guide to commercial auto insurance walks through what actually drives your quote.
The broker’s-eye view: why two indices disagree
Here is where it gets interesting, and where a careful reader gets an edge. The CIAB Q1 2026 survey put the overall commercial market at -1.2%, the first negative average in 33 quarters. That sounds like it contradicts the Ivans data showing most lines still positive. It does not. It reflects a different measurement.
| Line of business | CIAB Q1 2026 average premium change |
|---|---|
| Commercial auto | +5.8% |
| General liability | +2.6% |
| Umbrella | +4.8% |
| Employment practices (EPLI) | -1.8% |
| D&O liability | -2.1% |
| Cyber | -3.5% |
| Workers’ compensation | -3.7% |
| Commercial property | -5.5% |
| Surety bonds | 0.0% |
The Ivans figure is a renewal rate change on comparable policies. The CIAB figure is a broker-reported premium change that can reflect softer property and specialty lines pulling the whole average down. CIAB also surveys lines the Ivans headline set leaves out, like cyber and D&O, which are falling hard as capacity floods back in. Cyber renewing at -3.5% is a genuine reversal from the double-digit increases businesses saw a few years ago. If you buy cyber, D&O, or EPLI, this is a real opening to negotiate. Compare it against the full menu of business insurance lines so you know which of yours the market is discounting.
What a softening market means for your next renewal
A soft market is the best time to shop, not the worst. When carriers are competing for business, an incumbent that raised your rate 6% is vulnerable to a competitor willing to hold flat or cut. That leverage disappears the moment the cycle turns hard again.
Three moves for your next renewal. Get quotes from at least three carriers on any line that is softening, especially commercial property, cyber, and workers’ comp. Push hardest on commercial auto and umbrella, where increases persist and carriers price the same fleet very differently. And review your BOP, umbrella, and workers’ comp coverage while you have the negotiating room, using a structured coverage review so you are comparing the same limits carrier to carrier. Renata took her fleet to two new carriers and cut the auto increase in half. The soft market gave her the room. It will not last forever.
Frequently asked questions
Are commercial insurance rates going down in 2026? For some lines, yes. The CIAB Q1 2026 survey showed commercial property down 5.5%, cyber down 3.5%, and workers’ compensation down 3.7%. But commercial auto, general liability, and umbrella are still rising, just more slowly. The market is softening unevenly, so whether your bill drops depends on which lines you buy.
Why did my commercial auto premium go up when rates are falling? Commercial auto has posted rate increases for 59 consecutive quarters, according to CIAB, because the line has run loss ratios above 100% almost every year since 2014. Insurers pay out more than they collect on it, so they keep raising rates even while discounting other lines. It is the line least affected by the soft market.
What is the difference between the Ivans Index and the CIAB survey? The Ivans Index measures renewal rate changes pulled from agency management systems, reflecting what renewing customers are quoted. The CIAB survey asks commercial brokers to report their average premium changes. They use different samples and methods, so their numbers differ even though both track the same market.
What does a “soft market” mean for a small business? A soft market means insurers are competing more aggressively, so rate increases slow and some lines fall. It usually means a smaller increase rather than a true price cut. The practical upside is negotiating leverage, which makes it the best time to shop your coverage across multiple carriers.
Which commercial lines should I shop hardest right now? Push hardest on commercial auto and umbrella, where increases persist and carriers price the same risk very differently. Also actively shop commercial property, cyber, and workers’ compensation, which are all falling and where a competing quote can win you a real reduction.
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